Why Sarah Palin Lost In Alaska

It isn't part of some Democratic surge.

Sarah Palin lost her bid for a Congressional seat in Alaska. People will be gnawing on that one all night, but it's really not a difficult concept to understand: Alaskans did not want Sarah Palin.

It's not as though this is some conservative bastion of a state. They keep electing Lisa Murkowski, after all. Instead, this is about a state that is tired of a person they feel did them wrong.

She failed in a Vice Presidential bid, quit her job as governor, starred in a short-lived reality series, did not come across very well, and backed awful candidates as though she were some sort of power broker.

When you look at the breakdown of Begich's (the other Republican in the race) votes in the ranked primary system, it looks like this:

• Palin (R) 50.3%

• Peltola (D) 28.8%

• No second choice: 20.9%

What that means is only half of Begich's votes went to Palin. More than a quarter went to the Democrat Peltola. Just under a quarter had no second choice. The voters were just exhausted with Palin and decided they would rather a Democrat than her.

This isn't some sign that the Democrats are surging, although the media will report it as such. Just look at Axios.

Axios @axios

She defeated Republican Sarah Palin, the former governor and 2008 vice presidential nominee who had Trump's endorsement. She campaigned on her support for abortion rights, climate action and organized labor, as well as her knowledge of the state's prominent fishing industry.

This is yet another sign that candidates matter. Begich would have won, but Palin misread the environment and thought that it was a MAGA environment and brought no substance to the table.

Palin was an awful candidate and this outcome wasn't terribly hard to predict. But Alaska is gonna Alaska. However, it is a Congressional seat so don't be surprised if it flips in two years when Biden is dragging down the entire ticket personally.