I was kind of confident yesterday that the Republicans would be turning out in just high enough numbers that they could overcome a highly motivated Democratic base. There were signs it would happen, and Georgia, despite what Democrats and the media like to tell you, the state is still a deep red when it comes to partisan politics.
The problem is that for two months, the President, GOP leadership in Georgia, and the Georgia congressional delegation have all insisted the November election was stolen. The night before the election, Trump hosted a rally that largely attacked the state’s GOP governor and secretary of state. His campaign ran ads this whole week attacking the results of the election.
Despite the cry to go vote, the real message was clear: What’s the point if it’s just going to get stolen?
No matter what his supporters say, the blame for Tuesday’s election lies at Trump’s feet. His behavior since November has been increasingly erratic and conspiratorial, and his insistence that the election was stolen from him, rather than accepting that he lost, convinced his very devoted followers that there was no point in going to vote because it would just be more of the same.
But, the blame isn’t solely on him.
The Georgia GOP chairman, David Shafer, spent his time attacking other Georgia Republicans and trying to re-litigate the November election that he ended up overseeing the biggest Republican losses in twenty years. He spent this week attacking Brad Raffensperger, the Georgia secretary of state, instead of rallying the troops. As we saw in the election turnout last night, the troops were clearly insufficiently rallied.
Raffensperger, likewise, spent all his time burning down the state around him in vengeance for the way he was treated by Trump, Shafer, and the state’s congressional delegation.
The Georgia congressional delegation, including incumbent (and outgoing) Senators David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler, focused entirely too much on kissing up to the President’s insane conspiracy theories and not enough time encouraging their bases to come out. As far as the incumbents go, Loeffler was not a great candidate. I stand by my endorsement of her over Doug Collins months ago and think she was the right person for the job. But her campaign was not great in the general and combining that with Collins’ existence in the race, it prevented her from holding onto the seat.
I don’t know how much the $2,000 stimulus check issue actually played a part in all this, but Mitch McConnell’s bigger problem is his struggle to keep his caucus in line as an increasing number of Republican Senators have been joining in on the stolen election mantra. Without a solid and disciplined GOP, McConnell has lost his grip on power, making it that much easier for the Democrats to run roughshod over them.
The Republican Party has two years to try and unite as a coalition of both Trump supporters and Trump skeptics. This is all happening to them at the same time as a clear schism in the Democratic Party threatens to tear them apart. But with the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives under their control, their civil war can be held off for a bit. Ahead of 2022, the Republicans must try to unite and break the Democrats’ hold over Congress.