As I’m writing this right now, Arizona is back in the category of toss-up, joining Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, and a handful of other states. The current electoral college count is Trump with 214 to Joe Biden’s 227, according to my friends at Decision Desk HQ.
It is way closer than most thought it would be (polling, pundit, and politician all).
So… what the hell happened?
The Blue Wave Happened, But So Did A Red Wave
We went into this week with Democrats believing there was a massive blue wave that would carry them into greater power in Washington D.C. In fact, they were so confident they tasked Eric Holder with working to swing state legislatures toward the Democrats again.
And to be fair, the Democrats appear to have had a major wave last night - white voters, as expected, broke more for Joe Biden than they did for Donald Trump four years ago. It appears to be enough to swing the election for Biden as of this column's publication (that could change, but it's a narrow chance at this time), but it was not enough to win as decisively as the Democrats were loudly proclaiming they would before this week.
Something else happened, though. There was also a red wave, and it was more pronounced. The GOP gained a state legislature, they didn't lose but actually gained seats in the House, they held the Senate.
That shift of white voters to Biden was enough to swing Florida and Texas away from Trump, but a spike in the Hispanic vote for the GOP saved them. Even Politico is acknowledging that last night was an abject disaster for Democrats and their "blue wave."
As usual, Jim Geraghty says it way better than I ever will.
Maybe Nancy Pelosi isn’t the best leader to have in the House, and maybe Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez isn’t the best person to be the party’s rising star, and maybe Chuck Schumer is not all that great as a Senate minority leader. Maybe Democrats would be better off with a little more spotlight on figures such as Amy Klobuchar and Andrew Yang and John Delaney. They weren’t amazing presidential candidates, but they weren’t instantly antagonistic to everything associated with the opposition.
Maybe the craziest thought of all is that perhaps Democratic officeholders and candidates should interact with people who disagree with them, listen to their arguments and how they see the world, and see if they’ve had some wrong preconceived notions about the . . . er, deplorability of their political opponents.
It is very clear that the Democratic Party has no leadership and no winning direction. The leadership is made up mostly of old white politicians who are more focused on their power and position than they are with leading, and the rising stars are more focused on economic revolution than they are with representing the needs and desires of Americans. Last night was a rejection of both, and it puts the Democrats on the road to a civil war between the more centrist leadership and the young revolutionaries. There is no blue wave for a party as risk of this.
But working-class voters, especially minority ones, seem to be fleeing the Democratic Party. They are looking at the pre-covid economic success of Donald Trump and the economic failures of Barack Obama and seeking out the means to earn a living, own their own business, and provide for their families without the government's interference. Increasingly, the Democratic policies that have made it easier for some people to cut corners via the government at the expense of those who work their fingers to the bone to make their way in the world is leaving that latter group feeling cheated and angry about it.
Meanwhile, social conservative values that focus on the family and strengthening it, respecting religious values, and seek reforms to failing education systems are becoming more appealing as a better way of seeking a certain social justice. Combining the economic and the social from this point of view appears to better explain the demographic shift we're seeing.
Most importantly, though, we can confirm this through the down-ballot races last night. Donald Trump is a controversial and divisive candidate. If he wins, it is because the GOP carried him, not the other way around. Despite the "blue wave" of white voters, the down-ballot Republicans have largely outperformed the President and most of the significant gains in the GOP came from candidates who ran as their own person, and not as a Trump clone. Voters responded better to ideas than the cult of personality, and that is objectively a good thing for American electoral politics.
The fight is not over yet, though. The Presidential race is still up for grabs, but the data we have now indicates that a major demographic shift here is not a one-off occurrence, but part of a much larger trend.
Results Will Be Delayed Because Some Stopped Counting Votes
Here we are, the morning after, and we are no closer to knowing the results of the Presidential election than we were before polls closed yesterday.
However, what we do know is that a handful of states stopped counting mail-in ballots fairly early in the evening on Tuesday night, which is problematic because they didn't start counting mail-in ballots until Tuesday morning. So there is a backlog of mailed-in ballots that need to be counted, yet those states decided to call it a night.
If you wanted to avoid someone challenging the credibility of an election, I am not sure you could choose a worse way to handle the situation.
Here's how it goes down. There are going to be ten or so hours of unaccounted-for activity and then the ballots start getting counted again. Then, there will be another ten or so hours of unaccounted-for activity and then we should have results on Friday. Instead of working through the night, state election officials have decided to give either side the chance to call shenanigans if their side loses.
How else do you think this goes down? If Trump wins Pennsylvania, Democrats will say that someone tampered with and threw out a bunch of votes to give it to Trump. If Biden wins the state, Republicans will say someone "found" a bunch of extra Democratic ballots and magically stole the race.
This is a clear case of getting off your rear end and doing the work right now so we can have a transparent process voters can trust in. Instead, we're getting a system run on the whims of people who decided not to work in shifts but instead just give up for the night. That is not something we need to base our democratic systems on. We should be focused on transparency and accuracy, and not practices that open our system up to accusations (at best) of nefarious practices in our electoral system.
Hopefully, this will be addressed in a proper and transparent way, but it is certainly not giving off the vibes of a fair and just process. It stinks to high heaven, and no one seems to like that smell.
Don’t Forget What’s Really Important Here
There is a lot of focus on the national/federal races out there right now, with everyone waiting impatiently to see who will come out of this election as the next President of the United States, who will control the Senate, and how much power Democrats will or will not have over Congress.
This race, like no other in my life, has everyone energized and waiting to go vote. Lines are hours long in some places, and people want their voices to be heard.
It's very easy to get wrapped up in all the excitement of the Trump-Biden showdown, but we can't forget that today and from here on out, it's our state and local races that will help us either rebuild or build from today's national election. As I explained last week:
That is where I think conservatives need to take the battles next. If we are indeed about to transition into a post-Trump era, conservatives (and conservatism in general) need to begin locally and rebuild. We will need a bench, and one that isn’t overly tied to Trumpism and isn’t tied to the old guard that led to Trumpism in the first place.
However, if Trump wins, then conservatives need to shore up the obvious weaknesses we’re seeing in the polling rather than assume we have a permanent majority (it is tempting to think the Democrats can’t win if they manage to lose to Trump twice). In 2008, the Democrats assumed they would have a permanent majority. They figured they had all the time in the world to make the policy changes they wanted to in order to shift America to the left. Instead, they overreached and in 2010 lost control of the Senate. Then, they lost control of the House. Finally, they lost the White House to, again, Donald Trump of all people.
There is no such thing as a permanent majority, but there are ways to prolong it. If Republicans lose their majority here, it is time to restructure and start by winning local elections everywhere they can. If Republicans keep the Senate AND the White House, then its time to shore up the local communities and work toward regaining the House of Representatives as soon as possible.
If you haven't voted yet, make sure you are paying attention to the way-down-the-ballot stuff. Make sure you know who will be your next district attorney, sheriff, mayor, councilman, school board member, or whatever else is being voted on. Know what propositions are up for a vote. Be aware of what's there and how you're going to vote.
The federal stuff is going to be there, and that will be something that affects us down the road. But nine times out of ten, people will be more affected by what happens in your city, county, and state.
Homestyle: We Made It One Year!
On this week’s episode of Homestyle, my co-host Leigh Guidry and I celebrate our 52nd episode, which if my math is correct, means we’ve been doing this for a year.
It’s been an awesome year, and I hope that you’ll take a moment to subscribe and listen to the podcast (link below) and support us for more years to come. It’s been a hell of a ride, and I’m excited to keep it going.
If you want to hear more, you can always go back and listen to previous episodes, and we’d love to hear your feedback. Subscribe, rate, and review the podcast here, and if you have cooking, crafting, or family activity ideas, you can find us on Facebook and on Instagram (@Homestylepod).
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The Homestyle Podcast is a joint venture between myself and one of my best friends, education reporter Leigh Guidry. Throughout each episode, we discuss cooking, crafting, and other hobbies as well as how we make sure to spend time with our families despite how insanely busy life can be. The goal of the podcast has always been to take a moment to focus on what’s really important because, at the end of the day, family and life is more important than whatever distractions are going on in the world around us.
Recipe of the Week: Just Look At This Brisket
In lieu of a recipe this week, I have decided to share this picture of the brisket I cooked for Halloween, marking the beginning of what I think is a good idea: the annual Halloween barbecue.
The rub was a simple mix of salt, pepper, garlic, paprika, and brown sugar. The wood was oak lump charcoal and chunks of cherry and apple. It cooked for about 10 hours.
Final Thoughts…
The Democrats really are about to lose themselves to a civil war within its ranks, and neither side is really capable of providing god leadership. This is directly related to Obama’s governance. His inability to win over people from across the aisle and instead alienate them ended up wiping out Democrats across the country. There is no bench for the party still, and there is no reason to believe they can build one up while they’re fighting amongst themselves.