The Red Tide Rises Higher: Show Notes, 10/3/2022
Republicans extend their lead, Hispanic voters shift further right.
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The GOP’s Lead Extends
Right now, the Generic Congressional Ballot is showing what I suspected was happening as of last week - namely, that the Democrats have hit their ceiling ahead of the midterm elections, and the remaining voters are starting to consolidate around the GOP. There are various factors at play here, but we are far enough away from various negatives on the GOP (mostly Trump) and there isn’t really anything positive for the Democrats right now. The economy is still squarely the focus of the voters, which is not good for the party in power.
Hispanic Voters Shift Right
Polling analyst Patrick Ruffini has a piece at The Spectator that you really need to read. It continues with something I’ve been telling my audience about for a while now: Hispanics are voting Republican.
Most explanations for the shift in the Hispanic vote have overemphasized tactical factors or issues specific to the 2020 election, like the specter of socialism or the issue of defunding the police. If socialism had been a decisive concern, the rightward shift would have been stronger in heavily Cuban and Venezuelan South Florida than it was in the Rio Grande Valley, where the population is Mexican or native to the region — but the shift was just as clear along the Rio Grande.
Both precinct and polling data from 2020 reveal a deeper realignment in most immigrant-heavy neighborhoods. Ideology seems to have played a role: Among non-white voting blocs, there is a significant mismatch between voter ideology and candidate choice; conservative nonwhites tend to support the Democratic candidate far more often than conservative whites. That mismatch shrank in 2020, as conservative nonwhites in every racial group swung towards Trump by a net margin of at least twenty-five points. There’s every reason to expect the ideological polarization will continue.
There’s a whole lot more. You should read it.
The First 2023 Announcement
Rep. John Stefanski of Crowley has announced he is running for Jeff Landry’s job - Attorney General - next year. That puts him in a likely bid against Liz Murrill, Landry’s top deputy, who has all but said she’s running, as Landry is pretty much assured to be running for Governor.
That helps clear up the 2023 picture a bit more. If Landry is running (and there’s no reason to believe he isn’t), then we know who his likely successor is - one of these two. Governor is shaping up about as we’d expect, and there are no major moves on any of the other races at this time.
Headlines Of The Day
The United Nations Claims to "Own the Science" of Climate Change, Works With Google to Censor Dissent (RedState)
‘Bros’ Actor Blames ‘Homophobic Weirdos’ For LGBT Rom-Com’s Flop (KPEL)
Oil prices could soon return to $100 as OPEC+ considers ‘historic’ cut, analysts say (CNBC)
Scenes from the Anarchy in Portland (National Review)
Democrats stake their House majority on abortion (POLITICO)