There was always a chance - a slim chance, but still a chance - that something could have altered the outcome. There are plenty of variables still floating around. But as of right now, the Republican base either wants Trump or feels Trump is inevitable.
But, Trump’s results in Iowa came in close to where the polling averages had him. At RealClearPolitics, his polling average was at 52.5 percent, and the results in Iowa have him at 51 percent. Iowa is a very conservative state, and it’s clear a majority of the conservative base is motivated for Trump - to the point that they’ll cross a tundra to vote for him.
For anyone who thought that the Republican Party wasn’t Trump’s party, last night should have proven otherwise to you. A week from today, if things stay the way they are, Trump winning nearly 45 percent of the vote in a moderate Republican state should be more proof to you that the GOP belongs to him.
Some of you reading this won’t like that assessment. Some of you will love it. It doesn’t matter how you feel about it, right now it’s an absolute fact.
That presents a problem for both Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley. In truth, while DeSantis can be happy that he beat the recent polling, he’s still stuck in a rut and a path forward isn’t clear. Likewise, once we get through New Hampshire next week, I just don’t know what Haley’s path forward is. Unless she pulls off a win in New Hampshire and shows that Trump isn’t inevitable, the primaries after it are going to be extremely tough for someone seen as the “Establishment” candidate.
Haley, for her part, seems to see that the path forward isn’t through DeSantis, but through Trump. She is refusing to debate if Trump isn’t on the stage and in her speech last night she attacked Biden and Trump rather than DeSantis.
The Florida governor, however, believes his path is through Haley, and there’s some merit to that, too. Polling shows that if she bows out, her voters go to him.
The big problem for Trump, meanwhile, isn’t his opposition in the primaries. His problems are both legal and financial. He’s fighting court cases in multiple states, traveling back and forth, retaining a lot of lawyers, and using tons of resources in the process. You can argue that some of the indictments against him are a stretch, but there are real dangers for him.
The Mar-a-Lago documents case, I maintain, is the case most likely to get a guilty verdict, and a guilty verdict changes the game quite a bit.
All of this means that more money will be spent defending him in court and convincing voters to pick him again. That is money that can’t be spent on House and Senate races - and Republicans need every seat they can get.
We’re a ways out, so predictions are pretty worthless when you have all these variables and so much time. But it’s not outside the realm of possibility that voters split the baby. If Trump wins, Republicans probably won’t get the Senate (and may lose the House). But if Biden wins, I think it’s more likely that Republicans take the Senate.
Also… it feels like we’re about to enter a general election cycle where the two presidential candidates are the most disliked people in America.
At least I’ll be saved from the misery of voting.