Bill Cassidy is persona non grata in Louisiana Republican circles.
The senior Senator from Louisiana voted to convict Trump, and for his efforts, he has been formally censured by the Louisiana GOP, has been the target of attacks from every conservative politician and pundit in the state (except for me, assuming you guys would qualify me as being read or listened to enough to qualify as a pundit), and will almost assuredly get an opponent in 2026, assuming he runs again at all.
Cassidy says that the Democratic House Managers for impeachment made a better case than Trump’s lawyers did. He sided with six other Republicans to vote for conviction, though Democrats were still well short of the two-thirds needed to convict former President Donald Trump of incitement.
I don’t want to spend too much time here, but there are a couple of factors at play that are not getting really any coverage.
The first: Cassidy originally said he was only running for two terms and that was it. He was in the House prior to running against Mary Landrieu in 2014, and he was challenged from what was his right in that race (his conservative challenger in that race was Rob Maness, who has since become a pimple in the ear of the state Republican party before leaving it and voting for John Bel Edwards in the 2019 gubernatorial election just to make some sort of a point - I regret my endorsement of Maness in 2014).
So, Cassidy never really came into the job as the conservative’s conservative. He was just the Republican who could best beat Landrieu in a race where statewide-elected Democrats were almost a thing of the past. He has now won re-election for a second term, and his vote to convict reads to me like he’s going to keep his word and not run again. It’s not as though Republicans are at risk of losing Cassidy’s seat if he steps down, as the Democrats don’t have any sort of bench whatsoever to challenge whatever Republican runs in his place.
Cassidy was always really the ideal “establishment” Republican. He was a “yes man” for Republican leadership in the House, and voted however Mitch McConnell needed him to once he got to the Senate. The vote to convict strikes me as what an establishment type might vote if he knew he was on his way out.
But, speaking of McConnell, I do not think Cassidy would have voted as he did without McConnell’s blessing. Even Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins vote in lockstep when McConnell needs the votes. When he doesn’t, he allows them to vote however they need to to keep constituents happy back home. He is very calculating and has proven himself to be a step ahead of the Democrats for the last decade, at least.
I find it hard to believe Cassidy would have voted as he did if he didn’t talk to McConnell first. McConnell, knowing the Democrats didn’t have enough to convict and that Cassidy’s seat was not in jeopardy if he voted the way he wanted, gave his permission. Cassidy is nowhere near rebellious enough to think on his own in this matter, and he would have sought out McConnell’s guidance here. Even if he had already decided he was on his way out, he would have sought guidance and/or a blessing to vote his conscience.
Cassidy just won re-election. Even if he runs again and he is challenged from his right, his re-election is six years away. Voters don’t have that long of an attention span, and there are plenty of things that will change their mood. If the Republicans take back the Senate and the White House between now and then, he’s safe. If Republicans can put a stop to as much of Biden’s agenda as possible, he’s safe. There are very few scenarios that are also super likely that would force him out of his seat unless he were to give it up himself.
I don’t think he’s going to run again. He’ll be 69 years old by that point. He’ll probably have had enough by then. But to say “he’s done for” is making a very early judgment call that I don’t think you can safely make right now.