Fetterman Needs That Red Siren Emoji: Show Notes, 10/20/22
A ton of new data out today. Let's talk about it.
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Oh Dear: Pennsylvania Edition
Well, coming out a bit before the show today (and changing what I was going to be talking about) is this poll out of Pennsylvania and if it holds up, it’s a big, big red siren for Democrats right now.
I don’t see Mastriano winning, but the fact that it’s getting closer is fascinating. However, please pay attention to the following data.
InsiderAdvantage Chairman Matt Towery says Fetterman’s shrinking lead was a result of self-described independent voters breaking for Oz by twenty points.
"Oz is also picking an unusually high 14% of the African American vote and Asians and Hispanics say they are voting for Oz by a wide margin. Fetterman continues to enjoy a ten-point lead among female voters, while men prefer Oz at that same rate," Towery explained.
What’s Happening Right Now?
The short version: Undecideds are breaking toward the GOP.
The long version: In midterm elections, this is roughly the time when undecided voters make their choice, and it tends to go against the party in power. Couple that historical trend with the current trends - inflation is hot, everything is more expensive and in shorter supply, and crime is the central focus of a lot of news stories these days. As a result, independent voters and various demographic groups are starting to side with the GOP as an alternative to the status quo.
What The Analysts Say
Dave Wasserman of FiveThirtyEight draws this conclusion in an interview with New York Magazine, and I still think he’s understating it.
Today, we’re somewhere between an asterisk year, in which there’s a minimal wave, and a classic midterm election, where Republicans do quite well. I think this is probably a Category 2 or 3 hurricane headed Democrats’ way, just not a Category 4 or 5.
The problem is this: In Louisiana, we know good and well that “Category 2 or 3” is still really bad. Wasserman’s analysis is about where most of the major analysts who try really hard not to be partisan are, but most of the polling data backs them up. However, when you look at early voting turnout, there are signs that a Category 4 electoral hurricane is quite possible. Even Doug Mastriano, who might be the worst candidate put forward by the GOP, is closing the gap in the poll above, but there are other signs. I’ll go over those today.
Headlines Of The Day
Are We Seeing an End to the Age of AOC? (RedState)
Existing home sales fall to a 10-year low in September, as mortgage rates soar (CNBC)
How the Gubernatorial Races Are Breaking (National Review)
Analysis: Truss Defied the Markets, and They Ruthlessly Sealed Her Fate (New York Times)
An autistic teen needed psychiatric help. He spent a total of 76 days in an ER instead. (Washington Post)
Tweet Of The Day
Yes, I’m giving it to myself.