Congressional Democrats, and the Democratic Party as a whole, are chasing their base. But as we wind down 2025 (I can’t believe we’re almost in the fourth quarter of the year already) and prepare for midterm elections in 2026, that’s a bad position to find yourself in.
The party out of power tends to be in a stronger position than the party in power when the midterm cycle rolls through. The American public tends to split the balance of power between the parties as the pendulum of public opinion sways back and forth. But the American public still isn’t buying what the Democrats are selling, and the Democrats’ own base is highly dissatisfied.
If, at this point, you are taking action that is meant to appease your own base rather than try to win the American public’s trust, you’re going into a midterm cycle behind. Way behind.
Politics Over Policy
Earlier this week, the Democrats pulled together a plan to send a letter to President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, calling on them to endorse a Palestinian state. Is that something that will actually win voters, though?
Yes, there’s data Democrats will wave around. A Reuters/Ipsos survey in August found 58 percent of Americans think UN members should recognize Palestine—a number that looks like a majority mandate until you read the crosstabs: 78 percent of Democrats agree, but only 41 percent of Republicans do. Translation? It’s a party-line applause line, not a consensus plank for the fall.
Trump, by the way, took the wind out of those sails when he publicly opposed Israel annexing the West Bank.
If you’re campaigning to win back the middle, your message has to start with solving. For a median voter in a swing parish or county, the week’s most relevant questions are still: Are groceries finally cheaper? Are wages keeping up? Is the border under control? Is crime trending down?
When a party spends its precious oxygen on a letter about recognizing a Palestinian state, it reads like a values affirmation for the faithful rather than a plan to make life tangibly better for people outside the coalition. Especially when the people outside of the Democratic coalition have watched the Democratic base recite antisemitic speeches and act violently toward Jews.
But that’s not the only issue where the Democrats are struggling.
By the (Really Bad) Numbers for Democrats
Earlier this week, former president Barack Obama posted something to X about “winning on policies.” But it’s his own policies, and the policies of his party, that gave way to Donald Trump and the Republican moment we’re seeing right now.
In 2016, Obama left office while simultaneously leaving his party in shambles. Union households, especially across the Rust Belt, were split between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Blue-collar workers saw their livelihoods shattered under the Obama administration.
The Democratic coalition built by Obama crumbled and Republicans took over.
Nearly ten years later, despite winning a presidential election in 2020, the Democrats are struggling without an identity. They are losing on almost every key issue of importance to voters, as Bill Maher points out (Warning: language).
At the end, it’s Michael Smerconish with the key point: “The only thing Democrats stand for is opposition to Donald Trump.”
Democrats Aren’t Respecting Their Base—They Fear It
In recent weeks, we’ve seen the following:
The political assassination of Charlie Kirk
Kirk’s mourners attacked at memorials
An anti-ICE shooter firing at an ICE field office
An increase in heated rhetoric from the Democrats’ base
What you have not seen, especially in mainstream platforms, is an increase in political violence from the right. Progressives will point at the shooting of two Minnesota Democrats, but the deranged man who committed those acts believed he was doing so for Governor Tim Walz and there has been no clear documentation of his political leanings otherwise (outside of comments from friends and family).
What’s more, back in July, Democrats were telling Axios that their base was calling on them to get shot if they had to in order to oppose Trump.
What we’re hearing: The grassroots wants more. “Some of them have suggested ... what we really need to do is be willing to get shot” when visiting ICE facilities or federal agencies, a third House Democrat told Axios.
“Our own base is telling us that what we’re doing is not good enough ... [that] there needs to be blood to grab the attention of the press and the public,” the lawmaker said.
A fourth House Democrat said constituents have told them “civility isn’t working” and to prepare for “violence ... to fight to protect our democracy.”
A fifth House Democrat told Axios that “people online have sent me crazy s*** ... told me to storm the White House and stuff like that,” though they added that “there’s always people on the internet saying crazy stuff.”
But the problem isn’t that the base has gone wild. Instead, it’s simply continued in the direction Democrat leaders have pushed them in.
“I want to tell you, Gorsuch. I want to tell you, Kavanaugh. You have released the whirlwind and you will pay the price,” Senate Democrat leader Chuck Schumer said. “You won’t know what hit you if you go forward with these awful decisions.”
“If you see anybody from that Cabinet in a restaurant, in a department store, at a gasoline station, you get out and you create a crowd,” Congresswoman Maxine Waters told supporters. “And you push back on them. And you tell them they’re not welcome anymore, anywhere.”
“It’s time to put Trump in the bullseye,” Joe Biden said in 2024, just over a week after someone shot at Trump.
Democrats and media figures alike have been calling ICE a modern-day Gestapo constantly.
The rabid, violent rhetoric and acts committed by the left are where Democratic politicians have been leading them since Trump came into office, and there has been zero reflection from Democrats that they have inspired this with their words.
And I won’t deny to you that the right has used some inflammatory, sometimes violent rhetoric over the years, especially in the wake of the Trump era, but you do not see the level of violent protests, horrible language, property damage, and deadly shootings from the right that you see from the left. It’s just not comparable.
But Democrats can’t pull back now. They are in too deep, and their base will turn on them if they preach anything other than more of the same.
And, again, when you look at the Axios story above, you realize that the Democrats know it.
The Larger Electorate Doesn’t Want What Democrats Sell
Because the Democrats are in too deep trying to hold on to the loudest, most unhinged part of their base, they are struggling to convince Americans in the middle that they are a rational alternative to the Republican Party. Donald Trump’s polling numbers aren’t great, but the Democrats overall have been struggling to put any meaningful distance between them and the Republicans in terms of who would be a better governing party.
If they are stuck chasing their base, they aren’t winning the independent voters. And if they aren’t winning independent voters, they don’t have a shot of taking back Congress in 2026. It’s early yet, but the Democrats are showing no sign that they’ve learned the lessons of 2024.