The Joe Cunningham Show airs 3-4 p.m. every weekday on NewsTalk 96.5 KPEL. The daily show notes offer you a look into the topics of the day and the links to the top stories and Joe's own writings on the state of politics in Louisiana and around the country. Follow Joe on Twitter at @JoePCunningham and Like the Joe Cunningham Show on Facebook. You can also subscribe to the Joe Cunningham Show podcast on Apple, Spotify, Stitcher, or Amazon.
IMPORTANT PROGRAMMING NOTE: Tomorrow, the newly-elected Mayor of Carencro, Charlotte Clavier, will be my guest for the first half of the show. I am excited to get to speak with her.
The Wave That Wasn’t
There is a lot that happened, and a lot that didn’t happen. The Democrats had the best performance of any party in power since the Republicans in 2002. The problem is that no one - Republicans, Democrats, and everyone in between - saw it coming. The polls showed a wave. They showed the issues voters were reacting strongly to. They showed a clear path to disaster for the Republican Party.
But, the polls missed something: Independents and Gen Z.
Independents broke hard, but did so dependent on where they were located. Independents in deep blue areas voted Democrats. Independents in deep red areas voted red. Gen Z voters broke hard to the left, which gave the Democrats an edge in races where they got those voters out.
How did the polls miss them? We’re not too sure yet. I have my theories. But abortion motivated them, it appears, and that hurt Republicans.
So Who Won?
Well… no one? Everyone? It’s really difficult to say. The Republicans had a bad night, thanks to bad candidates and worse funding issues. Democrats, however, lost chunks of Virginia and New York, appear poised to lose Nevada, and may well lose the Senate depending on the run-off in Georgia. The Democrats didn’t win so much as the Republicans lost worse.
One thing we did get right was the trend of Hispanic voters moving to the right. That is keeping Arizona in play for Kari Lake (not Blake Masters), pushing Nevada to a total Republican victory, and absolutely played a huge role in the blowout in Florida.
Florida and Georgia
Ron DeSantis and Brian Kemp overperformed in their races. Through solid governance and guiding their states through COVID-19 and economic issues, they have won over not just their bases, but minority voters and moderate Democrats. They won where other Republicans across the country failed because they were their own men. They weren’t beholden to certain former presidents.
The Takeaways
Candidate quality actually does matter.
Young voters turned out and cared about abortion.
The voters clearly want a divided government but didn’t trust the GOP’s senate candidates.
It’s worth noting that the final days of the election had a lot of Trump telling everyone “Look at me!”
Headlines Of The Day
Republicans, Remember 1998 (Erick Erickson/Substack)
China Preparing For War, Xi Jinping Says (Dailywire)
Meta laying off more than 11,000 employees: Read Zuckerberg’s letter announcing the cuts (CNBC)
Nevada results to be delayed by Clark County ballot processing (NBC)
Blame Trump for weak Republican performance (Washinton Examiner)