54 Seats and a Return to Decorum: Show Notes, 11/2/22
Are we past the point of no return for either of these?
The Joe Cunningham Show airs 3-4 p.m. every weekday on NewsTalk 96.5 KPEL. The daily show notes offer you a look into the topics of the day and the links to the top stories and Joe's own writings on the state of politics in Louisiana and around the country. Follow Joe on Twitter at @JoePCunningham and Like the Joe Cunningham Show on Facebook. You can also subscribe to the Joe Cunningham Show podcast on Apple, Spotify, Stitcher, or Amazon.
54 Is The New 53
If you read my column from this morning, you know what this is about. New Hampshire looks winnable for the GOP. I’m not sold on it yet but, like the New York governor’s race, it suddenly looks like it’s entirely possible.
One of the issues here the sharp break toward the GOP in recent polling, and a huge portion of that is being driven by independent white, suburban women, almost all of whom are most concerned with crime and inflation.
Via the Wall Street Journal:
“We’re talking about a collapse, if you will, in that group on the perceptions of the economy,” said Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio who conducted the poll with Democratic pollster John Anzalone. The poll showed that 54% of white suburban women think the U.S. is already in a recession and 74% think the economy is headed in the wrong direction.
Views of the economy among the group were substantially more negative than in the Journal’s most recent prior survey. In August, 43% thought the economy had entered a recession, and 59% said the economy was headed in the wrong direction.
Many of these voters would be fine voting for a Democrat otherwise. In some analyses of these polls, some respondents have openly admitted they’re fine voting for the GOP now just so they can fix the economy, then they’ll go back to voting for Democrats again later.
Clay Higgins’ Deleted Tweet
I’ve waited a couple of days to talk about this one, but there is a conversation that we need to have, based on some comments I’ve seen in response to the story I wrote about it on Monday.
There are a good number of conservatives who would read this and think it’s fair game. Because the Democrats have said some horrible things over the years, this tweet is justified. Never mind that Higgins went back and deleted the tweet because he (or his team) recognized it as being wrong.
But we can’t live in a world where we justify what we do based on what political opponents have said or done. Wrong is definitely wrong, and its the Democrats’ actions and behavior that are, at least partially, driving voters back to the GOP in 2022. More importantly, though, with the recent shootings, crime waves, and mental health problems we’re seeing in the country, we should recognize that dehumanizing people who believe or think differently than we do is socially unhealthy.
Early Voting in Louisiana
Early voting is over, and the numbers look abysmal or Democrats. Here are the numbers, via Jeremy Alford last night.
CUMULATIVE (ALL EVAB COMBINED)
In-person EV: 272,199 votes
Absentee: 90,730 votes
Total EVAB: 362,929 votes
W: 258,523 (71.23%)
B: 93,267 (25.70%)
O: 11,139 (3.07%)
D: 151,095 (41.63%)
R: 157,603 (43.43%)
O: 54,231 (14.94%)
2018 VS. 2022 DAY 7 ONLY
2018 EVAB Day 7: 51,408 votes
2022 EVAB Day 7: 53,983 votes
2018 VS. 2022 TOTAL THROUGH DAY 7
2018 EVAB Total: 307,300 (88.2% IP; 11.8% ABS)
2022 EVAB Total: 362,929 (75.0% in-person; 25.0% ABS)
Republicans have never outperformed Democrats in the early vote, and the black early vote is down from where it was. Louisiana isn’t a swing state, but this tracks with what other states are showing, and it’s all bad news if you’re a Democrat.
Headlines Of The Day
Dan Snyder takes huge step toward selling Washington Commanders (NY Post)
A Bunch Of Loser Celebrities Are Announcing Their Exit From Twitter Because They're Upset Elon Musk Has Taken Over The Company (Barstool)
2 Former Candidates for Louisiana Governor Endorse Jeff Landry (KPEL News)
Biden to give speech on protecting democracy Wednesday night in DC (CNN)
Capitol Police had a camera feed of Pelosi's home during attack, but no one was monitoring it (NBC)